Artificial intelligence has evolved very quickly to become one of the most potent technologies of the 21st century, transforming industries, altering communication, and upsetting traditional work patterns. To understand why AI has gained ground so quickly, and why others remain wary, the diffusion of innovations theory, which was outlined by Everett Rogers, provides an useful framework. The theory outlines how new technology diffuses over time through societies, categorized by types like innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards.
AI diffusion began with an influx of innovators: researchers, developers, and tech-forward companies eager to tap its potential. They were later joined by early adopters — professional organizations like marketing, education, healthcare, and finance — that recognized AI's potential for automating mundane tasks, enhancing decision-making, and generating insights at scale. For these buyers, the promise of increased productivity, efficiency, and competitive edge outweighed risk concerns.
The rapid uptake can also be accounted for by the minimal barrier to entry: most AI software, such as
chatbots, and writing aids, are extremely easy to use or integrated into preexisting systems. One of the most popular AI tools, ChatGPT, can be used by simply visiting the website and asking freeform questions. That ready availability facilitated the early majority's utilization of AI, sometimes unknowingly.
However, not everyone has embraced the technology. Late adopters are likely more prone to skepticism, perhaps due to fear of job displacement, fear of data privacy, or general unease with rapid technological change. These people end up using AI, but only later on once it has become the norm.
The laggards are the people who refuse to use. These people may see AI as a direct threat to their jobs and a threat to productivity. This leads us to the idea of a tug-of-war game between the power of AI and the need for human creativity. Laggards are likely to be afraid that AI will become the dominant force of the world, and that humanity has a bleak future if we are not careful with AI.
Ultimately, the adoption of any communications technology, including AI, is an ongoing cost-benefit calculation. Diffusion of innovations theory cautions us that individuals use technologies not because they perform, but because they are compatible with social norms, address actual problems, and are accompanied by accepted endorsements. With further development in AI, so too will the range of adoption, influenced not only by what the technology can achieve, but by what individuals will accept.